I love watching awards shows (occasionally). Not for the glitz or the glamour, but to observe the forced whitened veneers smiling bewitchingly to one another, the painfully unfunny jokes, and the subtle signs of drama that's whispered in between commercial breaks as deals are made and broken.
This years' Globe awards were not a disappointment. Avatar. Avatar. Avatar.
Avatar was the big winner and it was clearly apparent that a great deal of the people in that room were not at all thrilled. Most people are disappointed when they lose, it's understandable... but this year there seemed to be a bit of venom laced with the champagne.
This is the first year that I've seen virtually every nominated film and I have to say it was a year of very entertaining films, but very few that will stand the test of time. Perhaps only James Cameron's insanely ambitious technical wizardry for Avatar, Sam Rockwell's overlooked and convincing performance in Moon, and The Hangover's hilarious screenplay will be what I remember ten years from now.
To win, timing is of the utmost importance.
I imagine directors like David Fincher, P.T. Anderson, Ridley Scott, Cronenberg, Jane Campion and many other talented directors want to pull out their hair this season. If there ever was a year to have a film released it was last year. Seven, There will be blood, Gladiator, A History of Violence, The Piano.. could have EASILY won them their much deserved statuette. It's a bit tragic because I would love to see Quentin Tarantino win, but not for Inglorious Bastards... for Pulp Fiction. Kathyrn Bigelow was very likely robbed (surprisingly, Cameron was pretty subdued and looked honestly stunned with his win) but then again... many other directors have been overlooked in the past. Hurt Locker isn't even in the same league with the likes of Rear Window or Full Metal Jacket, so if she doesn't win in March, she's in the best of company.
Oscar Predictions? It's a common joke that the Academy Awards are won by votes from the wives of the voters...
Best Guess who will win... (not necessarily who should win)
Best Picture: Avatar The academy needs this. They need to remember why they make films... MONEY. You can't ignore the public, but then again they often do. Maybe Moon? Wouldn't that be nice... a fantastic film not even on their radar.
Best Director: They think they'll piss off Cameron by voting for Bigelow (but he'll actually be happy if she wins) and many others would prefer Jason Reitman to win... but my bet is James Cameron. I'm really not sure if they are ready for a female to win. If there was a year a female should've won it was the year Campion was nominated for the Piano. Hopefully the campaigning trail will tip the scales but frankly I don't know if anyone can take down this juggernaut.
Best Screenplay: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner I'd rather it go to The Hangover or 500 days of Summer.. but I doubt it. Reitman's movie is primed for awards.
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock Helen Mirren already has one.. so does Meryl Streep and heck, if Julia Roberts can win one for playing herself than surely Sandra Bullock will take this one home. I'd love it if Carey Mulligan took this one.
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges Christopher Plummer would be a nice dark horse to win... then again Sam Rockwell should be nominated...
Best Supporting: Mo'nique and Christopher Waltz The only two categories where the voters take a chance, voting on the unknown and most deserved.